Louisiana Weather
Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:54 am
I am visiting friends in Shreveport-Bossier City for 2-4 weeks, And i am monitoring the weather during that for any bad weather in the next days.
So far...A little severe could start today or tomorrow...
SPC AC 180514
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2013
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W/NRN HIGH
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIG INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...A
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARKS...AND THEN EJECT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON...AND THEN DEEPEN FURTHER OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DURING MONDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL EXTEND INTO NERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SWEEP ESEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND
PART OF THE SERN CONUS.
...FAR SERN OK...ERN TX...CNTRL/SRN AR...NRN/CNTRL LA...
SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOW 50S
DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES FROM 0.75-1.0 INCH ARE RETURNING NWD ACROSS
SRN TX. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL SWLY JET...SUCH THAT BY
19/00Z...LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS FAR N AS CNTRL AR...WITH UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE IN
ERN TX. A MODEST EML WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7.5
C/KM WILL BE PRESENT ATOP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL
INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL AID IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WRN/CNTRL AR INTO FAR SERN OK AND NERN TX. STORMS
WILL THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE INHIBITED DURING MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS...IN ADDITION TO
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WILL LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES
TO AOB 500 J/KG. GIVEN THE WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND LINEAR FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE QUASI-DISCRETE
OR OCCUR IN CLUSTERS...AND POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE...WITH A
FEW SEGMENTS DISPLAYING EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING STRUCTURES
WHICH WILL FAVOR LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVER ERN TX AND WRN LA...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A WARM LAYER AT 700
MB WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN THIS REGIME
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF SKIES
CAN LOCALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN POCKETS OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING WOULD BOOST BUOYANCY AND YIELD DEEPENING UPDRAFTS
OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR ROTATING STORMS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
..GARNER/JEWELL.. 02/18/2013
So far...A little severe could start today or tomorrow...
SPC AC 180514
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2013
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W/NRN HIGH
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIG INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...A
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARKS...AND THEN EJECT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON...AND THEN DEEPEN FURTHER OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DURING MONDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL EXTEND INTO NERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SWEEP ESEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND
PART OF THE SERN CONUS.
...FAR SERN OK...ERN TX...CNTRL/SRN AR...NRN/CNTRL LA...
SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOW 50S
DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES FROM 0.75-1.0 INCH ARE RETURNING NWD ACROSS
SRN TX. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL SWLY JET...SUCH THAT BY
19/00Z...LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS FAR N AS CNTRL AR...WITH UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE IN
ERN TX. A MODEST EML WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7.5
C/KM WILL BE PRESENT ATOP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL
INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL AID IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WRN/CNTRL AR INTO FAR SERN OK AND NERN TX. STORMS
WILL THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE INHIBITED DURING MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS...IN ADDITION TO
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WILL LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES
TO AOB 500 J/KG. GIVEN THE WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND LINEAR FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE QUASI-DISCRETE
OR OCCUR IN CLUSTERS...AND POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE...WITH A
FEW SEGMENTS DISPLAYING EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING STRUCTURES
WHICH WILL FAVOR LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVER ERN TX AND WRN LA...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A WARM LAYER AT 700
MB WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN THIS REGIME
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF SKIES
CAN LOCALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN POCKETS OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING WOULD BOOST BUOYANCY AND YIELD DEEPENING UPDRAFTS
OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR ROTATING STORMS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
..GARNER/JEWELL.. 02/18/2013