Arklatex Weather Discussion

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cCatclaw
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Location: Louisiana

Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by cCatclaw » Mon Feb 18, 2013 9:17 pm

Here is the short term forecast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

ARZ073-LAZ001>004-010>012-017-TXZ152-153-165>167-190315-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-CADDO-CLAIBORNE-DE SOTO-NACOGDOCHES-
RED RIVER LA-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-SAN AUGUSTINE-SHELBY-UNION AR-
WEBSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BIENVILLE...BOSSIER CITY...CENTER...
COUSHATTA...EL DORADO...HEMPHILL...HOMER...LUFKIN...MANSFIELD...
MANY...MINDEN...NACOGDOCHES...SAN AUGUSTINE...SHREVEPORT
734 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

.NOW...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE EASTWARD AT 40 TO 45 MPH...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION TO DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO NEAR ONE
INCH...STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO NEAR
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

$$
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

LAZ005-006-013-014-018>022-190315-
CALDWELL-GRANT-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LINCOLN-NATCHITOCHES-OUACHITA-
UNION LA-WINN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...FARMERVILLE...JENA...
JONESBORO...MONROE...NATCHITOCHES...RUSTON...WINNFIELD
734 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST...ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS LAKES AREA...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. IN ADDITION...MORE
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER THIS EVENING.

$$

VII
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
808 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-190400-
CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-DUNKLIN-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-
MISSISSIPPI-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLYTHEVILLE...JONESBORO...KENNETT...
WEST MEMPHIS
808 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

.NOW...
THE RAIN HAS LEFT MOST OF EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP.

$$
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cCatclaw
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Location: Louisiana

Re: Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by cCatclaw » Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:42 pm

The forecast.
Shreveport-Bossier City, Louisiana
Today
A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 50. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
A chance of rain and thunderstorms before midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 44. East wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms. High near 59. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night
A 20 percent chance of rain before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight.
Another convective outlook.
SPC AC 201704

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX AND OK...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A POWERFUL AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH A 90-110 KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ROTATE ACROSS AZ/NM TONIGHT AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK. HOWEVER...LIMITED DEEP
LIFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER DARK.

LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER WEST TX
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH SOUTHERLY EXTENT OVER TX.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG AN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM
ABI TO SOUTH OF DAL BY THU MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH ALONG/SOUTH OF
THIS AXIS...BUT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD
PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO IF A
THUNDERSTORM CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

..HART.. 02/20/2013
Thursday...
SPC AC 201719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...

...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING INTO WRN IA LATE. 150-180M
12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH SRN
FRINGES OF LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO EXTEND TOWARD THE I-20
CORRIDOR. WITH SFC RIDGING STUBBORNLY RETREATING ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY IT APPEARS THE NWD ADVANCE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WILL BE
LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE WRN GULF BASIN AND NRN EXTENT OF MODIFIED
GULF AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN TX AHEAD OF SFC
FRONT.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SCNTRL TX
WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES BENEATH LLJ ALONG WRN
FRINGE OF AFOREMENTIONED RETREATING ANTICYCLONE. THIS SHOULD INDUCE
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER WHERE
MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG IF LIFTING PARCELS NEAR 850MB. HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS EWD TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY MID DAY. WITH TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/LA SUCH THAT NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS WILL
BE MINIMALLY INHIBITED. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD IF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE WITHIN THE WEAKER LAPSE RATE/LIMITED
BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL SPREAD
WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING WILL BE THE GREATEST CONTRIBUTORS TO POTENTIAL
ROBUST CONVECTION. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR TO THE QUALITY OF
MOISTENING THAT CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE EVOLVING WARM SECTOR BUT
FORECAST NAM PROFILES SUGGEST MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS COULD RETURN
WHILE MUCAPE MAY INCREASE TO ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES
CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IT
WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT DISCRETE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STRUCTURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. TRUE WARM SECTOR SFC BASED UPDRAFTS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE
COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. EVEN SO NEAR-SFC BASED STRUCTURES MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES WHILE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTS
ITSELF IN A SW-NE FASHION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO CNTRL MS.

..DARROW.. 02/20/2013
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cCatclaw
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Location: Louisiana

Re: Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by cCatclaw » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:16 pm

First weather warning of today.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC291-373-407-211830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0006.130221T1801Z-130221T1830Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1201 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST

* AT 1158 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHEPHERD...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF CLEVELAND...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING AND GOODRICH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE LIVINGSTON...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3042 9471 3035 9519 3042 9527
3053 9532 3094 9464 3051 9454 3049 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 245DEG 43KT 3050 9507

$$
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AndyWS
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Location: Madison, WI
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Re: Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by AndyWS » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:30 pm

One good thing about all these storms across the Plains and South, it should help ease the drought which has been plaguing the region for the last couple of years.
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cCatclaw
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Location: Louisiana

Re: Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by cCatclaw » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:12 pm

Tornadoes in Southern Louisiana.

TORNADO WARNING
LAC003-039-211945-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0004.130221T1903Z-130221T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...TURKEY CREEK...MAMOU...
EAST CENTRAL ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 1258 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
BOND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
REDDELL BY 110 PM CST...
PINE PRAIRIE BY 115 PM CST...
BAYOU CHICOT...TURKEY CREEK...CHICOT STATE PARK AND INDIAN LAKE BY
120 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3092 9226 3088 9224 3085 9224 3084 9221
3079 9221 3077 9218 3051 9258 3060 9268
3100 9238 3099 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 219DEG 55KT 3064 9255

$$

LANDRENEAU
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cCatclaw
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Location: Louisiana

Re: Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by cCatclaw » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:15 pm

Yeah. This explains it all.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC291-373-407-212000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0004.130221T1911Z-130221T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
111 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 108 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9
MILES EAST OF CLEVELAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO...NORTHERN LIBERTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3033 9468 3022 9493 3036 9506
3073 9459 3049 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 235DEG 40KT 3034 9492

$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-241-457-211945-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0012.130221T1852Z-130221T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES WILDWOOD...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...EBENEZER...KIRBYVILLE...JASPER...
TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...WOODVILLE...WARREN...TOWN BLUFF...ROCKLAND...
FRED...COLMESNEIL...CHESTER...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 1251 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...OVER WOODVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FRED BY 100 PM CST...
TOWN BLUFF...ROCKLAND AND SPURGER BY 105 PM CST...
MT. UNION BY 110 PM CST...
MAGNOLIA SPRINGS AND MT. UNION BY 115 PM CST...
EBENEZER AND KIRBYVILLE BY 120 PM CST...
JASPER BY 125 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3102 9447 3112 9406 3116 9393 3116 9392
3098 9387 3046 9388 3045 9389 3046 9453
3074 9459 3095 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 240DEG 44KT 3079 9443

$$

K. KUYPER
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cCatclaw
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Location: Louisiana

Re: Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by cCatclaw » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:42 pm

Well...Areas to the south of us are under a weather watch. Probably won't be long until we get one.

WOUS64 KWNS 211934
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

TORNADO WATCH 37 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-039-043-053-059-069-079-085-097-115-
127-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0037.130221T1940Z-130222T0100Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL
EVANGELINE GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES
SABINE ST. LANDRY VERNON
WINN


TXC199-241-351-361-403-457-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0037.130221T1940Z-130222T0100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HARDIN JASPER NEWTON
ORANGE SABINE TYLER


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
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cCatclaw
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Location: Louisiana

Re: Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by cCatclaw » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:46 pm

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS
AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST FOR STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY
WITH MESOVORTICES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER BOWING SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS
AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST FOR STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY
WITH MESOVORTICES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER BOWING SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS
AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST FOR STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY
WITH MESOVORTICES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER BOWING SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 211934
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

TORNADO WATCH 37 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-039-043-053-059-069-079-085-097-115-
127-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0037.130221T1940Z-130222T0100Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL
EVANGELINE GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES
SABINE ST. LANDRY VERNON
WINN


TXC199-241-351-361-403-457-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0037.130221T1940Z-130222T0100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HARDIN JASPER NEWTON
ORANGE SABINE TYLER


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...




Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW7
WW 37 TORNADO LA TX 211940Z - 220100Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
5ESE LCH/LAKE CHARLES LA/ - 25NE IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /3SW LCH - 47NNW AEX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.

LAT...LON 30109423 31989391 31989169 30109205

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.


Watch 37 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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AndyWS
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Re: Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by AndyWS » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:48 pm

Watch the storm north of Jasper, TX. Another one near Woodville looks like it is taking on supercell characteristics.
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AndyWS
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Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:51 am
Location: Madison, WI
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Re: Arklatex Weather Discussion

Post by AndyWS » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:53 pm

SVR warning went out for those two as I typed the previous message. Storm now northeast of Jasper moving toward the state line has shown persistent rotation the last three scans.
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