Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Discussion of the 2009 Monsoon

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Smjh1979
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Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Fri May 29, 2009 10:06 pm

So far, the season may start wet, and early than normal (hopefully)...

http://www.abc15.com/content/weather/st ... eNmVA.cspx

http://www.aslkahuna1.com/topic2.html

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/200 ... utlook.php

Our outlook for June is calling for above normal precipitation. July through September is looking to be near normal though. I'll know more on June 1 once the outlook for June is updated, and on June 18, when the 3 month outlook is updated again.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Sun May 31, 2009 3:12 pm

May 31 update: The climate prediction center is showing above normal rainfall for June 8 through June 14, so this will likely be our early Monsoon start.

What this will mean: Next week, since we are experiencing a temporary drying trend, my submission light will be green for most of next weekend. After that, my light will mostly stay on solid yellow, with little chance of going green. When this happens, email new crossings only to those who have green lights. I'll only have chances to work on updated crossings during this time period.

The CPC revised the outlook again, but for some reason, they went with June being more normal than above? :Confused:

These things have been wrong in the past, and maybe they will be again.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Mon Jun 01, 2009 2:33 pm

Looks like the CPC lied again. All references to above normal rain for the next 2 weeks has been removed. Below normal highs still remain though.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by cabman701 » Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:57 pm

It's just like the weather forcast around here basically. You just ignore it and hope for the best! :Grin:
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:50 pm

Yeah, but I'll keep my eye on it every day.

I kind of wondered if it was a lie, because on the weekend forecasts, a computer does the forecast. On Weekdays a person does it.

For some reason, the person went against the machine, and removed our much needed rainfall.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Tue Jun 02, 2009 3:01 pm

Things changed again. This time they have "normal" precipitation now for the next 2 weeks. Still no sign that there's an early monsoon start yet.

Below normal highs dropped from the 6-10 day outlook, but are still existent in the 8-14 day outlooks.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:01 pm

June 3 update: Below normal highs are back, and above normal precip is back, but for the northern part of the state, although I'm not sure if it'll include us.

It's weird that only the northern part of the state has above normal precip for now, and not the southern part of the state where the usual monsoon moisture comes from.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Thu Jun 04, 2009 3:41 pm

June 4 update: Above normal precip withdrawn from Arizona for the 8-14 day outlook. All temperatures still below normal though.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Sat Jun 06, 2009 3:14 pm

It's the weekend again, so the CPC now has computers doing the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks again.

Both periods show above normal rainfall for us for both periods, along with at times VERY below normal highs.

I hope the forecast will stick once a person does it again on Monday.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Mon Jun 08, 2009 3:09 pm

June 8 update: The people don't agree with the computer's forecast very well for some odd reason. Below normal temperatures remain, but now, the above normal precip has changed right back to below normal again. :Curse1: :TDOWN:
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