Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Discussion of the 2009 Monsoon

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Smjh1979
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Sat Jun 13, 2009 11:40 pm

June 13 update: Things looking a bit weird.

The weekend CPC forecast (done by a computer), shows some increasing moisture during the 8-14 day outlook.

The NWS in Flagstaff mentioned something about high pressure forming from Texas and pushing our way later this week, bringing us back in the 90s and 100s again, however from both the NWS and FOX 10, they both show what could be the start of the monsoon sometime around June 19.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Sun Jun 14, 2009 5:30 pm

The CPC is going weird with their forecasts, but looking at what the NWS offices say here in Arizona, I may not have to watch that anymore.

Here's part of the lastest Area Forecast Discussion issued by the NWS office in Flagstaff as of 3:00 PM MST/PDT (6:00 PM EDT):

"BY FRIDAY...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RETURN TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL."

"HIGH PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA COAST WILL NOSE FURTHER WESTWARD. IN COMBINATION WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCE INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY."

Looks like the potential start to the early monsoon...
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Mon Jun 15, 2009 8:36 pm

This is very interesting that the NWS in Flagstaff has posted in the forecast discussion Tonight:

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS S/W TROUGH BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AZ. THIS LOW IS FCST TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO CHANCES OF PCPN.

THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING NEWD ACROSS AZ ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND ACROSS NRN AZ. GFS SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES IN PW OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF SRN AZ AND MODEST INCREASES FARTHER NORTH. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG AND PRODUCING HAIL AND WINDS...MAINLY FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

Looks like my status light will be yellow all next week.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Wed Jun 17, 2009 5:55 pm

Looks like the storm coming in this weekend is not really related to the Monsoon. High pressure has to bring it in. This one is low pressure pushing the moisture in. It is pulling moisture in from Mexico, but it's doing it backwards. This is not Monsoon related, and won't be the start of the rainy season yet.

Friday and Saturday seem to be the days which is still looking to be possibly severe with winds and hail. My light will either be yellow or red during this time period, depending on how severe the weather is.

On Sunday and Monday, the low will exit, and dry us out again.

Now the NWS in Flagstaff is now talking about the High pressure coming our way again later on next weekend, and is introducing a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Eastern areas around the White Mountains on Tuesday.

By Wednesday, the high could push enough Westward for Flagstaff to get some activity, and maybe this could be the start of the Monsoon by the middle to the end of next week?
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Arizona_Mike » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:48 am

Hey Mike -- so monsoon season is thru August?? Just want to make sure so I can pack accordingly for vacation at the beginning of August :TUP1:
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:58 am

The season goes through September 30, although some storms do last through early September.

The outlook may call for the season to end early, but in early August, the storms should be pretty juicy still.
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Arizona_Mike » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:50 am

Smjh1979 wrote:The season goes through September 30, although some storms do last through early September.

The outlook may call for the season to end early, but in early August, the storms should be pretty juicy still.
Nothing wrong with a big juicy t-storm!! :TUP2:
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Re: Outlooks for Monsoon 2009

Post by Smjh1979 » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:52 am

It looks like the season is just about here. Chances of storms begin Tomorrow (Wednesday June 24), and continuing on, and on.

Chances of rain is low for now at only 10 to 20%, but hopefully that'll change, so that I don't have to water my little patch of grass twice a day.
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