Monsoon 2010 Outlook

[Smjh1979]

I've been keeping an eye on this for about the last month or so. So far, preliminary outlooks are looking for the start of the rain and thunderstorms to develop nearly on time, or slightly later. (Average start is July 7) Things look to be about normal so far, but with a possible abrupt change from El Nino this winter (which brought us some much needed rainfall), to a La Nina later this summer, things may get wetter during the second half of the rainy season.

Some sources are saying that this could be similar to the 1995 monsoon, which did usher in a tropical depression from the Pacific ocean.

The Climate Prediction Center showed during the April months that the period from July-September was to be drier than average. The May forecast changed that back to normal. The next outlook for our rainy period will be updated on June 17, 2010.

Here are some links:

http://www.aslkahuna1.com/topic2.html (Tucson based)
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/images/twc/Arti ... layer.html

Overall, the 2009 Monsoon was supposed to be wetter than average, thanks to the El Nino, which normally does make things a lot wetter, but alas the El Nino did just the opposite. It kept everything away from us, and now the La Nina expected later this Summer may be the ticket to a wetter 2nd half.

[gedunk]

The local weather forecasters are predicting some decent thunderstorm activity over the next few months in the Tehachapi mountains. I don't know if that ties into the monsoons, but any water coming down is a good thing.

[Smjh1979]

There are some increasing chances expected for parts of Arizona through Saturday before retreating again.