I could spring back into action today or tomorrow...
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acus01 kwns 240556
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 240554
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2013
Valid 241200z - 251200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of western north-central and
central Texas...
...
A closed middle level low will move southeastward from The Four Corners to the
southern High Plains as a shortwave ridge moves away from the northern Gulf
Coast during the morning and downstream to the Tennessee Valley by Sunday
night. Strong southwesterly middle-high level flow will increase across the Southern
Plains and the northern Gulf Coast states throughout the day 1 period.
In the low levels...the westward portion of a stalled front over the
northern Gulf of Mexico will advance northward into north-central Texas southeastward along the
la coast as a surface low develops eastward from eastern nm into north-central Texas
by Monday morning. Thunderstorm activity and a corresponding uptick
in severe storm potential will primarily favor portions of the Southern
Plains and northern Gulf Coast region mainly after dark.
..cntrl Texas into southwestern OK...
Deep layer forcing for ascent is expected to increase markedly after
00z/25 as low level moisture advects nwwd into western north-central Texas and
southwestern OK. Models show elevated instability and thunderstorms
developing initially in southwestern OK/western north-central Texas and building southward
during the evening into the overnight hours as a Pacific front
surges eastward across West Texas. A cool thermodynamic profile characterized
by temperatures -18 to -20 degree c at 500 mb with increasing lower tropospheric
moisture...will yield MUCAPE ranging from 250 j/kg north and up to
1500 j/kg over the Edwards Plateau. Strong effective shear will act
to organize updrafts /including the possibility for supercells/ and
support an attendant large hail threat with the more intense
updrafts that can acquire middle level rotation. Farther S over central
portions of Texas...surface dewpoints rising to the middle 50s may aid in
lending at least some potential for surface-based thunderstorms.
Model soundings show upwards of 300-500 m2/s2 effective srh...which
may contribute to a conditional...low probability risk for a tornado
as well.
..nrn Gulf Coast states...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the northern
Gulf of Mexico and move onshore...beginning as early as the late
afternoon and throughout the night...as a strengthening warm air advection regime
ensues. As this occurs...Richer low level moisture will move into
the coastal plain as surface dewpoints rise well into the 60s across
southern la. Middle level lapse rates are forecast to steepen overnight and
in turn becoming more favorable for isolated large hail
potential...especially with any supercells that may form owing in
part to strong southwesterly deep shear. Veering low level flow in closer
proximity to the boundary and moist low levels suggest an isolated damaging
wind gust or tornado cannot be ruled out near the coast.
.Smith/Dean.. 02/24/2013
Mesoscale Discussion
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acus11 kwns 240000
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 232359
flz000-240100-
Mesoscale discussion 0206
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2013
Areas affected...Florida Big Bend to the north-central Florida Peninsula
Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely
Valid 232359z - 240100z
Probability of watch issuance...5 percent
Summary...the potential for locally strong wind gusts will exist
with thunderstorms moving onshore this evening. A ww is not anticipated.
Discussion...as of 2350z...radar imagery showed a NE-SW oriented
band of thunderstorms from 30 southeast tlh to 20 south-southeast aaf with embedded cell
motions of 240/40-45 knots. Latest surface observations indicate that
the boundary layer has begun to cool across the discussion area with
rap-derived forecast soundings indicating only marginal instability
with SBCAPE of 300-400 j/kg. This factor is expected to mitigate a
more robust severe weather threat...though locally strong wind gusts
will be possible as the convective band moves onshore owing to
downward momentum Transfer of relatively strong midlevel winds.
Given the marginal nature of the severe weather threat...the
categorical slight risk will be removed in the upcoming day one
convective outlook.
.Mead.. 02/23/2013
..please see
www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...tbw...jax...tae...
Latitude...Lon 30198365 30408316 30418246 30008227 29418257 29118280
29078311 29338350 29698369 29978369 30198365
Even though the slight risk will be to our west, There is a 40% chance of storms in the night. I will be monitoring the radar when i get up.
T A FEGEL-STORM!