THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SAGINAW MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 350...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
FROM WI/IL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DESTABILIZED S OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F AND MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE RESULTING
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/.
MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A
LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUING WITH ELEVATED STORMS N/NE OF THE WARM
FRONT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
to the discussion, there's nothing wrong with wanting to see tornadoes. They are an amazing spectacle, they and the supercell thunderstorms they develop from are hands down the most spectacular atmospheric phenomena you can witness. There's a big difference between that and wishing for all the destruction and harm they are capable of causing.